The Conservatives get nastier
The Conservative campaign is getting nastier. What does this mean?
First, I think it will certainly boost their core vote. If you’ve had nagging misgivings over Labour before now, then this should strengthen your resolve to get out there and “send them a message”. But oddly, this isn’t the case if you’ve only got nagging feelings over Tony Blair, because there are plenty of core Labour supporters who don’t like him yet would never dream of voting Conservative. So it’s a reminder only to latent Conservatives voters about why they don’t like Labour.
Second, this will galvanise some latent Labour supporters who are repelled by this kind of tactic. So the Conservatives could have come up with a message that only attracted voters, but instead have opted for one which will polarise them, pulling many voters to them and some (admittedly fewer) voters towards Labour.
Third, this is has got to be the Conservatives’ only message between now and polling day. That’s because this kind of message needs a few days to build and be effective, and any more positive message is too complicated to get across in the little time now available. So expect to see this again and again and again until we vote.
Fourth, the Conservatives’ really aren’t pushing any policies. Their first line of campaigning is “You don’t like Tony Blair, do you?” Their second line is then “We’re not the present government” (witness previous ads simply sewing seeds of discontent). Their third line might - might - involve some positive policy initiatives. But you have to actively look for those, and you won’t find many their manifesto - it’s too thin. By contrast look at Labour’s beefy manifesto and the LibDems’ straight-talking “we oppose/we propose” campaign.
Fifth, and most of all, the Conservatives are getting nasty, and they are lowering the tone of the political debate. Not that they shouldn’t be allowed, but in the end it won’t do anyone any good, except perhaps the Conservatives in the short term. Michael Howard is coming out and calling Tony Blair a liar which, the Guardian notes, is “language that would be ruled out of order in the House of Commons” - and has hardly been well established. They are putting up posters designed to play into people’s racial prejudices. They are claiming that the housing of asylum seekers weighs against the housing of council tenants, omitting the crucial fact that the former is funded by central government while the latter is funded by local councils - they are as different as any two issues could be. They are making people fear this government for hospital cleaning problems, omitting to say that they themselves introduced the private outsourcing rules that ensured those problems.
From this point on Michael Howard will hammer again and again and again at Tony Blair personally.
Former Australian senator Cheryl Kernot has a sharp piece today on the viciousness of Lynton Crosby, the Conservatives’ election guru, shipped over after winning a similar campaign in Australia. Her article is well worth a read if you need to raise your blood pressure.
