My predictions for 1999
This is the time of year for looking back at our predictions for 2005 (”I said that Google would get into smell-casting in a big way, and their recent advertising alliance with AOL clearly hints that things are moving in the way I predicted”, etc, etc) and making wild guesses about 2006 (personally I think this could be COBOL’s breakthrough year, but I’m keeping it under my hat). Since those inevitably end up being so way off the mark they’re best ignored, I was startled last night to read an old prediction that was expressed coolly and clearly, and was absolutely spot on.
I was wondering how CSS, the DVD content scrambling system, worked and turned to Jim Taylor’s excellent book, “DVD Demystified”. Aside from the mechanics, it relies on a cartel of corporations to keep the encryption keys safe. Jim provides a typically straightforward explanation of the whole process — technical and commercial — and then towards the end he says this:
The CSS algorithm and keys are supposed to be a “very big secret”, but anyone who thinks it will remain a secret for long is delusional. It’s inevitable that the algorithm will be broken, the keys will be compromised, and the entire system will be laid out in detail on the Internet, perhaps next to the instructions on how to build nuclear weapons.
That’s from my edition dated 1997. CSS was cracked in 1999. Today you can see a whole gallery of ways to circumvent it.
It’s doubtful that we’ll read any predictions over the next few days that will be as accurate.
